Goias vs Internacional (Serie A, Brazil)

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Inter +0.25 -108 4units
Anybody interested in my opinion on Goias can look up last weeks pick on Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro gifted them some chances and still Goias couldn't score, lost again 0-1 at home and could easily have conceded a 2nd goal. Attacking midfielder Felipe Menezes probably will still be missing and their defense, although looking slightly improved, still gave up several scoring opportunities last week.
Inter on the other hand is rolling, 6-1-2 last 9 with their only losses coming at Atletico MG and at Santos, teams currently in 2nd and 4th place and annually two of the toughest places to play at and in both cases the home team needed a penalty to win. That uptrend coincided with the arrival of their new coach and them getting healthy. They will get back their top striker Lisandro Lopez for this one and their best centre back Paulão. Playmaker D'Alessandro and Sasha, two more key pieces of their offense, will at least be available from the bench and might even start. Only important missing is suspended striker Vitinho. They were one of the teams supposedly playing for the championship this year, but focussing on the Copa Libertadores and therefore resting regulars in Serie A while fielding a team of 2nd stringers cost them a bunch of points and then they got hit hard by injuries. Now finally healthy they are showing why they for highly touted earlier this year.
Inter the far superior team, also flew up to Goias on Friday already to practice up north (Goias has the largest pitch in Serie A) and get used to the dry heat up there. H2H also favors Inter, having won at home this season and having won both encounters last season.
 

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Team Total Goias under 1.0 +116
Goias scored just 3 goals in their last 5 games, only time they scored twice was vs Figueirense, playing 11vs10 and still only scored thanks to a penalty kick and an own goal. Last 15 they scored more than once just 3times: Said game vs Figueirense and vs Joinville & Vasco, the bottom2 teams in Serie A.
Inter on the other hand is fielding a strong defense and uses a far more defensive strategy under their new coach: He is not interested in style points, so keeping a clean sheet is the main priority and 1-0 their new standard result: Last 9 they went 6-1-2 and 4times won 1-0, while conceding more than 1 goal just twice (in both their losses). Both games came vs far superior teams than Goias (Atletico MG and Santos, 2nd and 3rd best home teams, 2nd and 4th place overall and 2nd and 4th best attack).
With Paulão they also get back their best centre back, are at full strength defensively and Goias new coach already complained about underwhelming efforts/performances in their practice sessions this week.
Last year Goias wasn't able to score vs Inter in both league matches and earlier this season they scored once in Porto Alegre, but needed a penalty shot to do so. Plus Inter is one of the strongest teams after set pieces, so highly unlikely that Goias scores that way, too. Either way, don't see them scoring twice in this game, so worst case would be a push.
 

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2-1 Goias, -5units.
Inter up 1-0, dominating 1st half by pressuring Goias early and deep in their own half, but just up by one. Fell asleep after halftime, conceding two goals in 3min and after that never really getting back into the game, also should have been awarded a penalty shot 4min before the end...
 

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TOugh Loss, But I am always reading your picks! Especially your information on weather, practice and local details that I would not be able to know living in the US. BOL this week with the rest of your picks.
 

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